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Subprime crisis cartoon

About Forex trading...

There is an old Sufi tale about a mullah (Nasruddin) who was discovered by a passer-by searching in the dust outside his house. What was he looking for, the stranger enquired. A key, said the mullah. Where did he drop it? “In the house” replied the mullah. Then why was he looking in the dust outside? Because here he was in bright sunlight, whereas in the house it was dark and difficult to see.
It happens to us all the time. The solution to worthwhile problems is never out there in the open. The key to financial markets is elusive. It must  be so - by definition. (c) Percival - The Way of the Dollar

The currencies are a pure zero-sum-game, the only one in fact. Zero-sum game - a situation in which one participant's gains result only from another participant's equivalent losses. The net change in total wealth among participants is zero; the wealth is just shifted from one to another. A stock market, however, is not a zero-sum game because wealth can be created in a stock market. In a pure zero-sum game there is no such thing as a crash. Taken as a whole, the players are never wiped out -in fact their wealth stays the same all the time. You win or lose only by playing better or worse. (c) Different sources

Ожидания по процентной ставке США

Опционы на фьючерсы fed funds могут быть проанализированы для определения ожиданий рынка в  отношении уровня процентных ставок. Графики, представленные ниже, указывают вероятности различных сценариев на трех последующих заседаниях ФОМС.

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Умная мысль о Форексе...

So it turns out that the technique of forecasting is mostly to do with being able to distinguish between those times when we have the right to forecast and those times when we don’t. The only way you can win in the currency markets is to wait for the market to tell you when to act. (c) John Percival

Перевод: Так получается, что техника прогнозирования рынка Forex сводится к умению отличать время, когда мы имеет право прогнозировать движения курсов, от времени, в которое мы это право не имеем. Единственный путь упешного трейдинга заключается в том, чтобы позволить рынку самому подсказать вам, когда нужно действовать! (с) Джон Персиваль